Climate Change and Its Impact on Sustainable Agricultural Development

Abstract

Agriculture is the sector most directly dependent on climate, and it is also one of the sectors most exposed to the effects of climate change. Rising temperature, changing rainfall, heat waves, droughts and floods affect crop yield, water availability, soil health and farm income, and thereby threaten the goal of sustainable agricultural development. This paper examines the impact of climate change on agriculture with special reference to India, using secondary data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the Reserve Bank of India, and peer-reviewed research. Three comparison tables are prepared: crop-group wise production of foodgrains from 2019-20 to 2023-24, year-on-year growth of different crop groups to identify climate-sensitive fluctuations, and a comparison of estimated yield losses per degree of warming in major crops as reported by global studies. The analysis shows that foodgrain production has increased by nearly 12 per cent in four years, but the growth is uneven. Wheat output fell in 2021-22, and pulses output declined in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, with the Ministry attributing the latter fall to drought-like conditions and a long dry spell. Global studies indicate that each degree of warming can reduce the yield of wheat by 4 to 6 per cent and of maize by about 7 per cent, unless adaptation measures are adopted. The paper concludes that sustainable agricultural development under changing climate requires climate-resilient crop varieties, efficient water use, soil conservation, crop diversification, weather-based advisory services and supportive policy.